Causal Inference in Logical Arguments

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1. 1

   A study finds that neighborhoods with more public parks have healthier residents. Which fact most seriously challenges the conclusion that parks cause better health?

   A Many residents report that they enjoy visiting parks. B Wealthier neighborhoods tend to have both more parks and greater access to health care. C Some parks contain walking paths while others do not.
2. 2

   The timeline shows that employees' sleep scores began improving before a workplace exercise program started. Which claim is most directly weakened?

   

   A Sleep quality can vary from week to week. B Exercise and sleep quality may be associated. C The exercise program caused the initial improvement in sleep scores.
3. 3

   Why does random assignment strengthen a causal conclusion in a controlled experiment?

   A It tends to balance both known and unknown preexisting differences between groups. B It guarantees that every participant responds to the treatment identically. C It ensures that the experimental sample represents the entire population.
4. 4

   In the causal diagram, rainfall points to both umbrella sales and traffic delays, with no arrow between those two outcomes. What best explains their observed correlation?

   

   A Umbrella sales cause traffic delays. B Rainfall is a common cause of both outcomes. C Traffic delays cause people to purchase umbrellas.
5. 5

   Assume a particular chemical reaction can occur only when catalyst Z is present. Which conclusion follows?

   A Catalyst Z is necessary for the reaction under the stated conditions. B Catalyst Z is sufficient by itself to produce the reaction. C Removing catalyst Z will accelerate the reaction.
6. 6

   Patients who choose to take a new medication recover faster than patients who decline it. Which additional evidence would most strengthen the claim that the medication causes faster recovery?

   A Most patients who selected the medication expected it to work. B The medication is more expensive than the standard treatment. C In a randomized double-blind trial, the medication group recovered faster than the placebo group.
7. 7

   The chart shows average performance scores before and after a training program. Using a difference-in-differences comparison, what is the estimated effect of the program?

   

   A 20 points B 10 points C 60 points
8. 8

   A survey sent through a fitness app finds that 90% of respondents exercise weekly. Why is it unsafe to conclude that 90% of all adults exercise weekly?

   A Fitness app users and voluntary respondents are likely to be more active than adults generally. B Weekly exercise cannot be measured through surveys. C A percentage can support only causal conclusions, not descriptive ones.
9. 9

   Sales training increases employee confidence, and greater confidence improves sales. After confidence is accounted for, the relationship between training and sales largely disappears. What role does confidence most likely play?

   A It is an unrelated coincidence. B It is necessarily a source of selection bias. C It is a mediator through which training affects sales.
10. 10

    The diagram shows exercise and risk-taking behavior both causing injury. What may happen if a researcher studies only people who were injured?

    

    A Every association between exercise and risk-taking will disappear. B An artificial association between exercise and risk-taking may be created. C Injury will become a cause of both exercise and risk-taking.
11. 11

    Which situation offers the clearest example of a natural experiment for evaluating a policy's causal effect?

    A A rule applies to municipalities just above a population cutoff but not to otherwise similar municipalities just below it. B Citizens decide for themselves whether to participate in the policy. C Researchers interview only officials who supported the policy.
12. 12

    A farmer claims that a new fertilizer caused one field to produce taller plants. Which finding most weakens the claim?

    A The fertilized field produced plants of several different heights. B The fertilizer contains nutrients commonly used by plants. C Before the fertilizer was applied, plants in that field were already taller than plants in the comparison field.
13. 13

    What type of causal evidence is displayed by the graph?

    

    A Evidence of reverse causation B Evidence of a positive dose-response relationship C Evidence that the outcome is constant at every dose
14. 14

    Pressing a machine's start button initiates production only when electrical power, raw material, and safety clearance are also present. How should the button press be characterized?

    A It is sufficient by itself to initiate production. B It is irrelevant because background conditions also matter. C It is a triggering cause whose effect depends on enabling conditions.
15. 15

    The diagram contains a direct arrow from tutoring to test score and an indirect route through practice time. What constitutes the total causal effect of tutoring on test score?

    

    A The combined direct effect and the indirect effect through practice time B Only the effect of practice time on test score C Only the direct arrow from tutoring to test score