Valuation as a disciplined link between cash flows, growth, risk, and price
Valuation is the process of translating a business story (how the company makes money and how it might grow) into a number (what it is worth today). The discipline comes from forcing every claim—“we’ll grow fast,” “margins will improve,” “this is a safe business”—to show up in a model through three levers:
- Expected cash flows: how much cash the business can generate for investors over time.
- Growth: how those cash flows change (often grow) over time.
- Risk: how uncertain those cash flows are, reflected in the return investors require.
Price is what the market pays; value is what your assumptions imply. When price and value differ, the gap is where decisions happen (invest, acquire, divest, hold, negotiate).
Three beginner-friendly approaches (and what each is really doing)
1) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): value from fundamentals
A DCF asks: “If I owned this business, what cash would it generate for me, and what is that cash worth today?” You forecast cash flows, then discount them at a rate that reflects risk. Most of the work is not math; it is choosing assumptions that are consistent with how the business operates.
Common DCF variants differ mainly in which cash flows you discount:
- Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) discounted at the company’s overall required return gives enterprise value (value of operations for all capital providers).
- Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) discounted at the equity required return gives equity value.
In this chapter we use a simple FCFF-style DCF and then convert to equity value.
- Listen to the audio with the screen off.
- Earn a certificate upon completion.
- Over 5000 courses for you to explore!
Download the app
2) Comparable company multiples: value from market pricing
Multiples value a company by reference to how similar companies are priced. The logic is: “If peers trade at X times earnings (or EBITDA), what would our company be worth at that same X?”
- P/E compares equity value to earnings available to equity holders.
- EV/EBITDA compares enterprise value to an operating profit proxy before financing and non-cash charges.
Multiples are fast and market-anchored, but they inherit the market’s mood and require careful “apples-to-apples” adjustments (growth, margins, risk, accounting differences).
3) Assumptions drive outcomes: valuation is a sensitivity exercise
Two analysts can value the same company differently because they made different assumptions about growth, margins, reinvestment needs, or risk. A good valuation makes those assumptions explicit, tests them, and shows which ones matter most.
Guided valuation example: a simple business
Assume a small subscription software business (“SimpleSoft”) with stable customers and moderate growth. We will value it using:
- A basic DCF (fundamental value)
- A multiples cross-check (market-based reasonableness)
Given information (simplified)
| Item | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Revenue (Year 1) | $10.0 million |
| Revenue growth (Years 1–5) | 8% per year |
| Operating margin (EBIT margin) | 15% of revenue |
| Tax rate | 25% |
| Depreciation | 2% of revenue |
| Capital expenditures | 3% of revenue |
| Net working capital investment | 1% of revenue each year |
| Discount rate (for FCFF) | 10% |
| Long-run growth after Year 5 | 3% |
| Net debt (debt minus cash) | $5.0 million |
These inputs are intentionally clean so you can focus on mechanics and intuition.
Part A: Basic DCF step-by-step
Step 1: Forecast revenue for 5 years
Revenue grows at 8% annually:
Year 1: 10.00m (given) Year 4: 12.60m (10.00 * 1.08^3)Year 2: 10.80m Year 5: 13.61mYear 3: 11.66mStep 2: Forecast operating profit (EBIT) and after-tax operating profit (NOPAT)
EBIT = 15% of revenue. NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate).
| Year | Revenue | EBIT (15%) | NOPAT (75%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.00 | 1.50 | 1.125 |
| 2 | 10.80 | 1.62 | 1.215 |
| 3 | 11.66 | 1.75 | 1.312 |
| 4 | 12.60 | 1.89 | 1.418 |
| 5 | 13.61 | 2.04 | 1.531 |
Interpretation: NOPAT is the after-tax profit from operations, before considering financing (interest). It is a core building block for FCFF.
Step 3: Convert NOPAT to free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)
A simple FCFF bridge is:
FCFF = NOPAT + Depreciation − Capital Expenditures − Increase in Net Working CapitalUsing the percentage assumptions:
- Depreciation = 2% of revenue
- Capex = 3% of revenue
- Working capital investment = 1% of revenue
So the net reinvestment drag each year is: +2% −3% −1% = −2% of revenue. Therefore:
FCFF = NOPAT − 0.02 × Revenue| Year | NOPAT | 0.02 × Revenue | FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.125 | 0.200 | 0.925 |
| 2 | 1.215 | 0.216 | 0.999 |
| 3 | 1.312 | 0.233 | 1.079 |
| 4 | 1.418 | 0.252 | 1.166 |
| 5 | 1.531 | 0.272 | 1.259 |
Interpretation: Even profitable companies may have lower free cash flow if they must reinvest heavily. Here, reinvestment is moderate, so FCFF tracks NOPAT fairly closely.
Step 4: Discount the forecast cash flows to present value
Discount factor for year t is 1/(1+r)^t with r = 10%.
| Year | FCFF | Discount factor (10%) | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.925 | 0.909 | 0.841 |
| 2 | 0.999 | 0.826 | 0.826 |
| 3 | 1.079 | 0.751 | 0.811 |
| 4 | 1.166 | 0.683 | 0.796 |
| 5 | 1.259 | 0.621 | 0.782 |
Sum of PVs (Years 1–5) ≈ $4.06m.
Step 5: Estimate terminal value (value beyond Year 5)
Because businesses are assumed to continue, a DCF typically adds a terminal value. A common beginner method is the perpetual growth model:
Terminal Value at Year 5 = FCFF_6 / (r − g)Compute FCFF in Year 6 by growing Year 5 FCFF at long-run growth g = 3%:
FCFF_6 = 1.259 × 1.03 ≈ 1.297mTerminal Value (Year 5) = 1.297 / (0.10 − 0.03) ≈ 18.53mDiscount terminal value back to today:
PV(Terminal Value) = 18.53 × 0.621 ≈ 11.50mStep 6: Compute enterprise value and equity value
Enterprise value (EV) is the value of operations:
EV = PV(Years 1–5 FCFF) + PV(Terminal Value)≈ 4.06 + 11.50 = 15.56mConvert EV to equity value by subtracting net debt:
Equity Value = EV − Net Debt≈ 15.56 − 5.00 = 10.56mDCF result: EV ≈ $15.6m, Equity value ≈ $10.6m.
Part B: Multiples cross-check step-by-step
Now we ask: “If the market values similar businesses at certain multiples, what valuation would that imply for SimpleSoft?” We will use EV/EBITDA and P/E as two common lenses.
Step 1: Compute the company’s Year 1 EBITDA and earnings (simplified)
We have EBIT and depreciation. EBITDA ≈ EBIT + Depreciation.
| Year 1 metric | Calculation | Value ($m) |
|---|---|---|
| EBIT | 15% × 10.0 | 1.50 |
| Depreciation | 2% × 10.0 | 0.20 |
| EBITDA | 1.50 + 0.20 | 1.70 |
| Net income (rough) | EBIT × (1 − tax) | 1.125 |
Note: For a true P/E you would use net income after interest. Here we use a simplified proxy to focus on the mechanics; in practice you would incorporate financing costs and any non-operating items.
Step 2: Apply peer multiples to estimate value
Assume the peer group trades around:
- EV/EBITDA = 9×
- P/E = 12×
EV/EBITDA method:
Implied EV = 9 × EBITDA = 9 × 1.70 = 15.30mImplied Equity Value = EV − Net Debt = 15.30 − 5.00 = 10.30mP/E method (using simplified net income proxy):
Implied Equity Value = 12 × Net Income = 12 × 1.125 = 13.50mSo the multiples cross-check gives a range:
- EV/EBITDA implies equity ≈ $10.3m (close to the DCF)
- P/E implies equity ≈ $13.5m (higher than the DCF)
Reconciling results: why DCF and multiples can differ
1) Different methods “see” different things
- DCF explicitly models reinvestment needs and long-run economics. If growth requires heavy reinvestment, DCF will penalize value through lower free cash flow.
- EV/EBITDA focuses on operating performance before depreciation and financing. It can overvalue businesses that need large capital expenditures (because EBITDA ignores capex).
- P/E is sensitive to capital structure and accounting. Two companies with identical operations can have different P/E ratios due to leverage, interest expense, tax effects, or one-time items.
2) Timing differences: “this year” vs “the future”
Multiples often use current or next-year metrics. DCF is dominated by the long-term (especially the terminal value). If the market expects faster growth or higher margins than your DCF assumes, multiples may imply a higher value.
3) Embedded assumptions inside multiples
A peer multiple is not assumption-free; it hides assumptions about growth, risk, and reinvestment inside the market price of the comparable companies. When you apply a multiple, you are implicitly saying: “Our company deserves the same bundle of assumptions as the peer group.”
4) Capital structure and “what is being valued”
EV/EBITDA yields enterprise value; P/E yields equity value. Mixing them without consistent adjustments can create apparent disagreements. A practical discipline is:
- Use EV-based multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales) to compare operating businesses regardless of leverage.
- Use equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B) when leverage and accounting are comparable and stable.
What the differences imply for decision-making
Use DCF to understand the value drivers you can control
DCF is useful when you need to make operational or strategic decisions because it forces clarity on:
- How growth translates into cash (and what reinvestment it requires)
- Which margins are realistic
- How sensitive value is to risk and long-run growth
For example, if a proposed initiative increases revenue growth from 8% to 10% but also increases working capital and capex needs, DCF helps you see whether value actually increases after reinvestment.
Use multiples to sanity-check and to negotiate
Multiples help answer: “Is my DCF output in the neighborhood of market pricing?” If your DCF implies EV/EBITDA of 6× while peers trade at 9×, you need to explain why:
- Are your cash flow assumptions too conservative?
- Is the company riskier or lower quality than peers?
- Are peers temporarily overpriced (or underpriced)?
Turn valuation into a range, not a single point
Because assumptions drive outcomes, decision-makers often work with ranges. A simple way is to vary the two biggest DCF levers:
- Discount rate (risk): e.g., 9% to 11%
- Long-run growth: e.g., 2% to 4%
Even small changes can move value meaningfully because terminal value is often a large portion of EV.
Quick assumption checklist (to keep valuations internally consistent)
- Growth vs reinvestment: If you assume high growth, do you also assume the investments needed to support it (capex, working capital, hiring)?
- Margins vs competition: If margins expand, what operational change makes that plausible (pricing power, scale, cost reductions)?
- Terminal growth: Is long-run growth reasonable relative to the broader economy and industry maturity?
- Multiple selection: Are the comparables similar in growth, profitability, and risk? Are you using forward or trailing metrics consistently?
- Bridge between EV and equity: Did you adjust for net debt (and other non-operating assets/liabilities if material)?